| Andrew |
 | 14 Comments |  | 8122 Read | Jan 09, 2009 |
 |
First off, Happy New Years to everyone. I hope the holiday season was both enjoyable and relaxing for all. I can''t believe I haven''t posted on here in about a month. I apologize for that. I did a decent amount of traveling for the holidays, and have also had to deal with my job situation, which thankfully appears to be resolved (http://www.newbritainherald.com/articles/2009/01/06/news/doc4963fce29ea45237430362.txt). So that''s one less thing I have to worry about, for at least the next few months. Then we''ll see where I end up.
But enough about my personal life here. This is, after all, a sports blog. And, after watching most of the BCS title game tonight, I''m in a football mood. So I figuered now is as good a time as any to offer up my first NFL mock draft. I''ll admit that as a Seahawks fan I''ve been spoiled the last few seasons. I''ve been used to division titles, playoff wins, a Super Bowl appearance, etc., so a 4-12 clunker has, in a way, re-energized me for the draft (Please go along with this ... it''s been a long season for me). That doesn''t mean I''m not interested in the playoffs. Here are my quick predictions for the rest of the way: Divisional - Giants over Eagles, Panthers over Cardinals, Ravens over Titans, Chargers over Steelers. Conference - Giants over Panthers, Ravens over Chargers. Super Bowl - Giants over Ravens in a rematch of Super Bowl XXXV.
Now, on to my mock draft. I want all of your thoughts on this, so fire away with the comments.
1. Detroit Lions - Andre Smith, T, Alabama: I may be the only person in the world who doesn''t have Detroit taking a quarterback. But seriously, I have to believe with Matt Millen finally gone, the new management there is actually going to be competent and look at the trends in the league. And here''s a trend for you: Joe Thomas, Ryan Clady, Jake Long. The Lions take the elite tackle, and go after a QB in free agency or trade. Just watch.
2. St. Louis Rams -Eugene Monroe, T, Virginia: The Rams are taking the top offensive lineman on the board. They''ll be happy with either Smith, Monroe or even Michael Oher.
3. Kansas City Chiefs -Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest: Chiefs like Tyler Thigpen (and so do I), so they go for the impact linebacker in Curry.
4. Seattle Seahawks -Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: This makes too much sense on too many levels not to happen.
5. Cleveland Browns - Beanie Wells, RB, Ohio State: Browns tab the local product as their running back of the future. I personally don''t like this, but I can see it happening.
6. Cincinnati Bengals - Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas: This is a tough slot for the Bengals. A lot depends on Carson Palmer''s health, because if there are questions with him, I can see them nabbing one of the top quarterbacks here. For now though, Stafford and Bradford continue to slide.
7. Oakland Raiders - Taylor Mays, S, USC: Probably a little too high for Mays, but Al Davis doesn''t care. Mays will be a workout wizard and Davis will fall in love.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Michael Oher, T, Ole Miss: Jaguars need an upgrade at tackle. Oher certainly fits the bill.
9. Green Bay Packers -Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: Green Bay will absolutely go for a defensive player here, as they have to an improve an aging, declining unit. Jenkins makes sense, but so too does Vontae Davis.
10. San Francisco 49ers - Jason Smith, T, Baylor: The run on tackles continues as the 49ers grab Smith.
11. Buffalo Bills - Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia: Finally, a QB comes off the board. JP Losman is officially a bust at this point, and there are serious concerns over Trent Edwards'' shoulder. Stafford could finall bridge the gap between Jim Kelly and the next great signal caller in franchise history.
12. Denver Broncos - James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State: Broncos need defensive help in the worse way. Laurinaitis is an impact player that should start from day one.
13. Washington Redskins - Eben Britton, T, Arizona: Another tackle goes in the first round. Britton should help immediately as a fill-in along the line, and could eventually blossom into the long-term replacement for Chris Samuels at left tackle.
14. New Orleans Saints - Rey Maualuga, LB, USC: Saints always seem to need defensive help. Maualuga will offer that.
15. Houston Texans - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: This would be a dream for Houston. Unlike the last time they took a quarterback in the first round (David Carr), the Texans could let Bradford develop for a year or two behind Matt Schaub.
16. San Diego Chargers - Everette Brown, DE/LB, Florida State: San Diego likes these versatile pass rushers. And with Shawne Merriman''s return hardly a guarantee, this offers pretty good insurance.
17. New York Jets - William Moore, S, Missouri: Jets probably will go after the best available player at this spot. That player could very well be Moore.
18. Chicago Bears - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois: Bears will likely go for defense here. Michael Johnson is definitely a possibility, but Davis offers too much talent at this slot to pass up.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Percy Harvin, WR, Florida: I think there is a very good chance that Knowshon Moreno goes here to the Bucs. But for some reason I also think Harvin will get tabbed here. It''s really a toss up. But Harvin certainly didn''t hurt his draft stock in tonight''s BCS game.
20. Detroit Lions - Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech: The Lions start building a team the right way - on both the offensive and defensive line. The Lions follow their first overall pick of Smith by using the Cowboys'' pick on Johnson, who will provide an immediate upgrade.
21. Arizona Cardinals - Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: Edgerrin James is almost certainly gone, and Tim Hightower isn''t the answer, at least not by himself. Hightower and Moreno would be an upgrade for sure.
22. Philadelphia Eagles - Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma: Philly needs help along the entire offensive line. Robinson should be a mainstay for years.
23. Minnesota Vikings - Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida: Minnesota keeps adding pieces to its already potent defense.
24. New England Patriots - D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt: Patriots definitely need to upgrade their secondary.
25. Atlanta Falcons - B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: Fills in a large (very large) need on the defense.
26. Miami Dolphins - Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: Though they already have a young receiving corps (Ted Ginn Jr., Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo), Maclin is too explosive to pass up this late in the first round.
27. Baltimore Ravens - Ciron Black, T, LSU: Ravens don''t have too many glaring needs, so they go with a solid talent on the offensive line.
28. Philadelphia Eagles - Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: L.J. Smith is probably gone, and Brent Celek isn''t the answer. Pettigrew would be a nice young target for Donovan McNabb.
29. Indianapolis Colts - Max Unger, C, Oregon: The versatile offensive lineman would be a natural fit for the Colts. Unger, generally a center, can play all five positions on the line.
30. New York Giants - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: After losing Osi Umenyiora early this season, the Giants will be intent on improving their depth at defensive end.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Alex Mack, C, California: Steelers love stocking up on the talented offensive lineman, and Mack is certainly one of them.
32. Tennessee Titans - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: Whether it''s Vince Young or Kerry Collins, they will need a target to throw to. Heyward-Bey is a legitimate playmaker.
Andrew, I could be completely wrong about the Dolphins drafting a WR in the first. However, the reason that I don't think I am is because of all the other holes the Dolphins currently need to fill. They desperately need another pass rusher to compliment Porter. They couldn't run between the tackles with any degree of consistency because the o-line was patched together with guys from the waiver wire. Finding a guard or two either in the draft or FA is a major priority. Since guards aren't as highly coveted as tackles it's possible the Phins try to land a quality guard with one, or perhaps both of their second round picks. While spending both picks on the same position is highly unlikely you can never have enough o-linemen. Personally I would like to see them get BJ Raji in the draft. Of course that means he's gotta get by Atlanta first which I think is highly unlikely. As evidenced by your mock. Other than that I wouldn't mind seeing them trade down to stockpile more picks.
Victor is dead on when he says the Dolphins will not draft a receiver in the first round. Maybe in round 2. If they don't resign their starting right tackle Vernon Carey, the pick will be an OT. If they do, look for the Dolphins to go D-line or LB.
I decided to do a little research on the recent drafting of wide receivers. Here are all the receivers taken in the first round (in order) since 2000, followed by my assessment of the class (i.e. 2/5 if two of the five have proven to be great NFL players):
2000 - Peter Warrick, Plaxico Burress, Travis Taylor, Sylvester Morris, R. Jay Soward (1/5)
2001 - David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Santana Moss, Freddie Mitchell, Reggie Wayne (2/5)
2002 - Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, Javon Walker (0/3)
2003 - Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson, Bryant Johnson (1/3)
2004 - Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Michael Jenkins, Rashaun Woods (3/7)
2005 - Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Roddy White (2/6)
2006 - Santonio Holmes (0/1)
2007 - Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Jr., Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Craig Davis, Anthony Gonzalez (2/6)
2008 - None
So a quick tally shows that only 11 of the last 30 first-round receivers taken have developed into legitimate, big-time NFL wideouts. Just for the record I have the following: Burress, Moss, Wayne, Johnson, Fitzgerald, Williams, Evans, Edwards, White, Johnson and Bowe. Though, this doesn't include the guys right on the cusp, such as Anthony Gonzalez, Michael Jenkins, Matt Jones, Ted Ginn and others.
Just because Ginn hasn't developed as quickly (most of the blame should go on the Dolphins' offense being the previous two seasons), doesn't mean they will automatically ignore Maclin. I don't think he's a lock by any means, but I don't think he's a lock NOT to go to Miami either.
Just as Victor said, It takes 3 years to develop a WR (see Ted Ginn), miami won´t make the same mistake. Not even if Crabtree is available!!
There is NO way miami drafts a WR in a 1st rd, NO WAY. I think BJ Raji will be available or they will pick Max Unger or Brian Cushing (rare not to be in this mock draft). Here on this one!!
After watching a little you tube of Maclin I had to admit I was impressed. The one thing that stood out to me though was the fact that he seemed to always outrun the defenders. While that isn't necessarily a bad thing I don't think it bodes well for the Dolphins picking him. They already have Ted Ginn. The problem with guys that have good speed in college is that they tend to rely on that speed to get to the edge. The thing is, that doesn't work in the pros because everyone is fast in the NFL. I didn't notice him being physical with anyone in the clips I watched. At his size he needs to be able to shrug off defenders. Besides, like I mentioned earlier, most receivers need 3 years to breakout. I do agree that Miami needs a big play WR I just think it's more likely they get that from FA and not the draft.
For one the Steelers need an offensive lineman. They are pretty soft this year and that is part of the reason Ben has been injured so much. I totally agree with the pick, though which offensive lineman is yet to be determined.
Victor: You make a fair point. Parcells' draft history would indicate he'll go after a powerful lineman. At the Dolphins' pick, however, most of the marquee lineman in this draft should be gone by No. 26 (probably will end up being the early 20s when they re-sort the picks after the playoffs). That makes Ciron Black a possibility. However, Maclin is a beast. Don't you think he could some very nice things out of the wildcat for Miami? He's a threat to score on runs, catches, kick and punt returns. Who wouldn't want that?
What about Bill Parcells history makes you believe the Dolphins will go after a WR in the first round of the draft? Everyone knows it takes (most) WR's at least 3 years to adjust their game to the pro's. And as you already pointed out. The Dolphins are full of young WRs. Parcells likes him some linemen. Obviously the formula works but the Dolphins lack the necessary depth and talent along the lines to make it deep into the playoffs. Look at the Giants last year. New England had all the firepower in the world on offense but their linemen got dominated for the entire game. You could have Dan Marino, Jerry Rice, Chris Carter, and Walter Payton all in their prime on your team and still not make the playoffs if you don't have the talent up front. It all starts up front and anyone that doesn't believe that after the season the Dolphins had is a fool.
Thanks guys for your thoughts. This is just the first of a few mocks I will put together as the draft gets closer. I'll also admit that I'm not a draft expert, so I as a read more about the prospects and what teams might be looking for, I'll adjust accordingly. Now, some individual thoughts:
gary cameron: I think the Vikings could go for the best player available, which Spikes would arguably be if he fell that far. When I look at the Vikings, I see Chad Greenway as a solid linebacker, but I'm sold on Ben Leber, Napoleon Harris, etc. I actually think Raji is a possibility. Both the Williams are studs in the middle, but Pat is getting way up there in age. Could be time to grab his replacement (and also a capable sub who could spell him a few plays as a rookie).
Justin: With the Lions, who really knows? Crabtree will be a stud in the league, I believe. But Detroit has Calvin Johnson. They need offensive line protection, so someone can throw him the ball. It all starts up front. But, like you said, the Lions love the receivers early on in the draft. So, we'll see.
Myth: As I look back through my picks, I am tending to agree with you. My mock is light on the defensive line, particularly the tackles. That will likely change though, as the weeks progress.
Carson: I agree 100% with you that the Texans need defensive help. It is probably way more likely they will go that route. However, do you not think they will at least consider Bradford if he falls to them? Consider this: The Texans went 2-4 in games in which they had Sage Rosenfels at quarterback this season, including two close losses to the Colts (one of which was that ridiculous "helicopter dive fumble" incident). That means they went 6-4 in Matt Schaub's games, not a bad record. However, Schaub has only appeared in 11 games each of his two seasons in Houston. Schaub is one of the top-15 quarterbacks in the league, but hardly the picture of health. Houston would be foolish not to at least consider taking Bradford. But, I could just easily see them grabbing Everette Brown. You make a fair point.
Sorry, there is not a chance in Hell that Gary Kubiak will select Sam Bradford. Kubiak has already stated his desire to select a QB on day 2 and develop him. More importantly we need DEFENSE. When Gary is intrerviewing men for the vacant DC position he is selling them on that first pick being theirs. Our pass rush has always been a weak spot, and with Everett Browne still on the board the Texans would fall down running their pick up to the podium. By the way, Matt Schaub is Kubiak's boy, he has hitched his wagon to #8. I could also see Vontae Davis or William Moore, but Browne would be my first choice.
this is certainly showing a different slant with several teams but im almost certain that the vikings wont take a linebacker in the first it is the one real area of strengrth i also think the texans have to many needs to be nabbing a 1st round qb
Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech has to be Lions pick. Don't the Lions pick a receiver every year with their first pick.
Very nice thought processes for the Lions. Add into your arguement that the Lions got caught at the tail end of the OT run last year, and ended up with a RT (when they NEEDED a LT) ... and Mayhew won't want to lose out on a franchise LT again. I think it could very well happen that at least 6 OTs are taken before the Lions 2nd first rounder. The other draftniks that are picking QB for the Lions #1 overall look very foolish to me.
I don't disagree that the d-line needs to improve, but I think they got a steal with Cliff Avril. He really came along in the last few games when he got some significant playing time. They still need another pass rushing DE to spell him and give him a breather, but more importantly they need to address their run stopping defense. Until that happens it won't matter if they can put pressure on the QB. Therefore, I would look at MLB Brandon Spikes or DT B.J. Raji or Gerald McCoy with their #20.
On the defensive side I think you are underselling some of the DTs. I think that some of these guys are going to move up more than you think. You must have forgotten Peria Jerry and if Terrence Cody comes out they could both be 1st rounder. Contrarily, Tyson Jackson has been a big disappointment and looks like his draft stock has slipped to being a 3-4 DE. I could see him slipping quite a ways actually.
Thanks for your mock. Keep up the good work. Now on to round 2 :)
