The NFL football season is right around the corner and that means that commissioners across the country are setting up their drafts very soon.  I have a theory on fantasy football and I haven't heard it talked about much, so I wanted to see what everyone thinks of it. So here is the theory:

Star players have their best games against weaker competition.

It's not rocket science, but very few when they draft look at opposition schedules to determine what players will have the easiest time having great fantasy numbers.  I am going to write a series of articles on this subject, both from who to target and who to avoid.  This first two will focus on the whole season.  The second set will focus on the first part of the regular season.  The third set will look at the stretch run and the finall article will focus on the playoffs.  Check back this week for updates.  So, here are my top five players who will outperform the expectations.

5.  Steven Jackson

I know what you are saying.  Steven Jackson? After last year?  I know I have as many doubts about him being healthy as you do, but it is hard to argue that he is primed for a big comeback if he can stay healthy.  The Rams play the 5th easiest defensive schedule this year so if he healthy, he should be a top 5 back.

4.  Ben Roethlisberger

How did the Super Bowl champions get such a cupcake schedule?  The Steelers have the third easiest defensive schedule this year.  Couple that with having the top rated defense means that the Steelers are a lock for the number one seed in the AFC.  The defense is going to give Ben an immense amount of chances to score points and with the 3rd easiest set of defenses to go against, I see him having his best year yet.

3.  LaDainian Thomlinson

The Chargers have the toughest schedule on this list, but it will still be easy for them to put points on the board.  They have the 6th easiest defensive schedule and with LT playing Oakland, KC, and Denver twice each, I see him getting over 2000 all purpose yards up again like he did in 2006.

2.  Kurt Warner

The top two spots are reserved for the team playing the easiest defensive schedule this year.  The Cardinals opposing defenses average ranking is 19.  They play the Giants (#2) and the Vikings (#3), so imagine what the rest of their schedule looks like.  Kurt has so many weapons and his opponents this year have so few ways to stop him.  Expect him to repeat his 4500 yard campaign.

1.  Larry Fitzgerald

As I type this, I am reminded that both Super Bowl teams play really easy schedules this year.  How does that happen?  Anyway, if there is one player to get, it is Fitzgerald.  He will probably be a low end first round pick like always, but he will outperform several players around him.  Consider also that the other premier WR's like Steve Smith and Randy Moss play the toughest schedules in the league.  This puts Fitzgerald well above anyone at his position and he was already there to start with.

Next up are the 5 players you want to avoid.